CAL FIRE Climate Change Science, Research and Reports

Climate Science Programs

RESEARCH PAPERS AND SCIENCE REPORTS ON CLIMATE EFFECTS AND FORESTRY

The following list provides a sampling of peer-reviewed research papers on climate science and climate implications for forestry. Climate research is expanding rapidly. Please refer to research and science links identified throughout this website for the latest reports and publications. For general reports on climate change science and on impacts to other sectors, please visit California Climate Change Portal's "Publications" page.

Climate Change Effects: California

Bemis, G. 2006. Inventory of California Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990 to 2004 - FINAL STAFF REPORT. California Energy Commission, PIER Energy-Related Environmental Research. Publication # CEC-600-2006-013-SF

Cayan, D., A. Luers, M. Hanemann and G. Franco. 2006. Scenarios of climate change in California : An overview. California Climate Change Center-California Energy Commission. Publication# CEC-500-2005-186-SF.

Luers, A., D. Cayan, G. Franco, M. Hanemann and B. Croes. 2006. Our changing climate : Assessing the risks to California. A summary report from the Climate Change Center. California Climate Change Center-California Energy Commission. Publication # CEC-500-2006-007.

Luers, A., and S. Moser. 2006. Preparing for the impacts of climate change in California: Opportunities and constraints for adaption - Final report. 2006. California Climate Change Center-California Energy Commission. Publication # CEC-500-2005-186-SF.

Rogers, J., K. Eslinger, L. Hunsaker, L.Y. Li, N. Lowery, J. Raymond, K. Scott, M. Vayssieres. 2007. ARB Staff Report: California 1990 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Level and 2020 Emissions Limit. Air Resources Board. 29 pp. Webpage with staff report and supporting appendices.

Wilkinson, R. 2002. Preparing for a changing climate: The potential consequences of climate variability and change for California. The California Regional Assessment. Washington, D.C.: Global Change Research Program.


Climate Change Effects on Forests and Wildfire: California

Battles, J.J., T. Robards, A. Das, W. Stewart. 2009. Projecting Climate Change Impacts on Forest Growth and Yield for California's Sierran Mixed Conifer Forests California Climate Change Center, California Energy Commission. Publication # CEC-500-2009-047

Fried, J., J. K. Gilless, W. Riley, T. Moody, C. Simon de Blas, K. Hayhoe, M. Moritz, S. Stephens, and M. Torn. 2006. Predicting the effect of climate change on wildfire severity and outcomes in California: A preliminary analysis. California Climate Change Center-California Energy Commission. Publication # CEC-500-2005-196-SF.

Lenihan, J., D. Bachelet, R. Drapek and R. Neilson. 2006. The response of vegetation distribution, ecosystem productivity, and fire in California to future climate scenarios simulated by the MC1 dynamic vegetation model. California Climate Change Center-California Energy Commission. Publication # CEC-500-2005-191-SF.

Lenihan, J., R. Drapek, R. Nielson, and D. Bachelet. 2003. Climate change effects on vegetation distribution, carbon stocks, and fire regimes in California. Appendix IV In: Electric Power Research Institute. Global Climate Change and California, Potential implications for ecosystems, health and the economy. CEC-500-03-058CF.

Millar, C.I., L.J. Graumlich, D.L. Delany, R.D. Westfall and J.K. King. 2004. Response of subalpine conifers in the Sierra Nevada, California, U.S.A., to 20th-century warming and decadal climate variability. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research 36(2):181-200.

Miller, J. D., H. D. Safford, M. Crimmins, and A. E. Thode. 2008. Quantitative Evidence for Increasing Forest Fire Severity in the Sierra Nevada and Southern Cascade Mountains, California and Nevada, USA. Ecosystems DOI: 10.1007/s10021-008-9201-9.

Miller, N. and N. Schlegel. Climate change : Projected Santa Ana fire weather occurrence. 2006. California Climate Change Center-California Energy Commission. Publication # CEC-500-2005-204-SF.

Thorne, J., T. R. Kelsey, J. Honig, B. Morgan. 2006. The Development of 70-Year-Old Wieslander Vegetation Type Maps and an Assessment of Landscape Change in the Central Sierra Nevada California Climate Change Center-California Energy Commission. Publication # CEC-500-2006-107

Westerling, A. and B. Bryant. 2006. Climate change and wildfire in and around California: Fire modeling and loss modeling. California Climate Change Center-California Energy Commission. Publication # CEC-500-2005-190-SF.

Forest GHG Inventory: California (or contains information on California)

Brown, S., T. Pearson, A. Dushku, J. Kadyzewski, and Y. Qi. 2004. Baseline greenhouse gas emissions for forest, range, and agricultural lands in California. Winrock International, for the California Energy Commission, PIER Energy-Related Environmental Research. Publication # CEC 500-04-069F.

Clinton, N. E., P. Gong, K. Scott. 2006. Quantification of pollutants emitted from very large wildland fires in Southern California, USA. Atmospheric Environment 40 (2006) 3686-3695.

Pearson, T., S. Brown, S. Petrova, N. Martin, A. Dushku, J. Kadyszewski. 2006 Baseline Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals for Forest and Rangelands in Shasta County, California Winrock International, for the California Energy Commission, PIER Energy-Related Environmental Research. Publication # CEC-500-2006-070.

Smith, J. and L. Heath. 2008. Carbon stocks and stock changes in U.S. forests, and Appendix C. P. 65-80, C-1-C-7 in: U.S. Department of Agriculture. U.S. Agriculture and Forestry Greenhouse Gas Inventory: 1990-2005. Technical Bulletin No. 1921. Washington, DC: Office of the Chief Economist.

Forest Management for GHG Mitigation and Climate Adaptation: California

Brown, S., A. Dushku, T. Pearson, D. Shoch, J. Winsten, S. Sweet, and J. Kadyszewski. 2004. Carbon Supply from Changes in Management of Forest, Range, and Agricultural Lands of California. Winrock International, for the California Energy Commission, PIER Energy-Related Environmental Research. 500-04-068F.

Brown, S., D. Shoch, T. Pearson, M. Delaney, A. Dushku 2004. Baseline Development and Estimation of Carbon Benefits for Extending Forested Riparian Buffer Zones In Two Regions In California: Blodgett Forest Research Station and Jackson State Demonstration Forest. Winrock International, for the California Energy Commission, PIER Energy-Related Environmental Research. Publication # 500-04-071F

Fellows, A. W. and M. L. Goulden.  2008.  Has fire suppression increased the amount of carbon stored in western U.S. forests? Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, L12404, doi:10.1029/2008GL033965.

Hurteau. M. and M. North.  2009. Fuel treatment effects on tree-based forest carbon storage and emissions under modeled wildfire scenarios.  Front Ecol Environ 2009; 7, doi:10.1890/080049.

Martin, N., S. Pertrova, S. Brown, T. Pearson and J. Kadyszewski. 2007. Summary of rangelands suitable for terrestrial carbon sequestration in Shasta County. CEC-500-2007-101.

Millar, C.I. and L.B. Brubaker. 2006. Climate change and paleoecology: New contexts for restoration ecology. Chapter 15 In: M. Palmer, D. Falk, and J. Zedler (eds). Restoration Science. Island Press.

Moritz, M. and S. Stephens. 2006. Fire and sustainability: Considerations for California's altered future climate. California Climate Change Center-California Energy Commission. Publication # CEC-500-2005-192-SF

Forest Biomass Utilization: Mitigation and Adaptation in California

Jenkins, B.B. 2006. A Roadmap for Development of Biomass in California. Forest Biomass, pp 48-52. The California Biomass Collaborative, U.C. Davis for the California Energy Commission, Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) program. Contract Number 500-01-016.

Williams, R. and B. Jenkins. 2008. An Assessment of Biomass Resources in California, 2007. DRAFT. Forestry, Chapter 2.2, p. 61. California Biomass Collaborative. For California Energy Commission, Public Interest Energy Research Program. Contract 500-01-016.

General or Out-of-State Papers on Impacts, Inventories, Mitigation and Adaptation

Antle J., M. Apps, R. Beamish, T. Chapin, W. Cramer, J. Frangi, J. Laine, Lin Erda, J. Magnuson, I. Noble, J. Price, T. Prowse, T. Root, E. Schulze, O. Sirotenko, B. Sohngen, J. SoussanaI. 2001. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Chapter 5. Ecosystems and Their Goods and Services. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (IPCC) Special Report. United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP).

Baron J.S., L.A. Joyce, P. Kareiva, B.D. Keller, M.A. Palmer, C.H. Peterson, and J.M. Scott. 2008. Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP) 4.4: Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources, Chapter 3- National Forests. U.S. Climate Change Science Program. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC.

Birdsey, R., M. Cannell, W. Galinski, A. Gintings, S. Hamburg, B. Jallow , M. Kirschbaum, T. Krug, W. Kurz, S. Prisley, D. Schulze, K.D. Singh, T.P. Singh, A.M. Solomon, L. Villers, Y. Yamagata. Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry. Chapter 3: Afforestation, Reforestation, and Deforestation (ARD) Activities Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (IPCC) Special Report United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP).

Birdsey, R.A., J. C. Jenkins, M. Johnston, E. Huber-Sannwald. 2007. North American Forests, Chapter 11 In The First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR): The North American Carbon Budget and Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle. The U.S. Climate Change Science Program. 242 pp.

Easterling, W.E., P.K. Aggarwal, P. Batima, K.M. Brander, L. Erda, S.M. Howden, A. Kirilenko, J. Morton, J.-F. Soussana, J. Schmidhuber and F.N. Tubiello, 2007: Chapter 5, Food, fibre and forest products. IN: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 273-313.

Gibbard, S., K. Caldeira, G. Bala, T. J. Phillips, and M. Wickett. 2005. Climate effects of global land cover change. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, 4pp.

Jandl, R., M. Lindner, L. Vesterdal, B. Bauwens, R. Baritz, F. Hagedorn, D. W. Johnson, K. Minkkinen, and K. A. Byrne. 2007. How strongly can forest management influence soil carbon sequestration? Geoderma 137 (3-4):253-268.

Jenkins, J. C., D. C. Chojnacky, L. S. Heath, and R. A. Birdsey. 2003. National-Scale Biomass Estimators for United States Tree Species. Forest Science 49(1): 12-35.

Krankina, Olga M. and Mark E. Harmon. 2006. Chapter 5 Forest Management Strategies for Carbon Storage. In Forests, Carbon and Climate Change: A Synthesis of Scientific Findings. The Oregon Forest Resources Institute Oregon State University College of Forestry, and Oregon Department of Forestry.

Logan, J.A., J. Régnière, J.A. Powell. 2003. Assessing the impacts of global warming on forest pest dynamics . Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 1(3): 130-137.

Luyssaert, S., E.D. Schulze, A. Borner, A. Knohl, D. Hessenmoller, B. E. Law, P. Ciais, & J. Grace. 2008. Old-growth forests as global carbon sinks. Nature. Vol 455, pp 213-215.

Malmsheimer, R.W., P. Heffernan, S. Brink, D. Crandall, F. Deneke, C. Galik, E. Gee, J. A. Helms, N. McClure, M. Mortimer, S. Ruddell, M. Smith, and J. Stewart. 2008. "Forest Management Solutions for Mitigating Climate Change in the U.S.", In: Journal of Forestry (April/May 2008). pp 115-173.

Millar, C.I. 2004. Climate change as an ecosystem architect: Implications to rare plant ecology, conservation, and management. In: Brooks, M. (ed). Proceedings of the Conference on Rare Plants, Ecology, and Conservation, 9-13 Feb 2002, Arcata, California. Pp 139-157. California Native Plant Society.

Millar, C.I., R. Neilson, D. Batchelet, R. Drapek and J. Lenihan. 2006. Climate change at multiple scales. Chapter 3 In: Salwasser, H. and M. Cloughesy (eds). Forests, Carbon, and Climate Change. Oregon Forest Resources Institute Publication.

Millar, C.I., N.L. Stephenson and S.L. Stephens. 2007. Climate change and forests of the future: Managing in the Face of Uncertainty. Ecological Applications 17(8): 2145-2151. Shorter versions: CIRMOUNT Newsletter Mountain Views 2(1): 5-10 and Climate Change Resource Center Issue Paper 1-5.

Nabuurs, G.J., O. Masera, K. Andrasko, P. Benitez-Ponce, R. Boer, E. Elsiddig, J. Ford-Robertson, P. Frumhoff, T. Karajalainen, O. Krankina, W.A. Kurz, M. Matsumoto, W. Oyhantcabal, N.H. Ravindranath, M.J. Sanz Sanchez, X. Zhang. 2007. Chapter 9, Forestry. In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and NY, USA.

Ohlson, D.W., G. McKinnon and K. Hirsch. 2005. A structured decision-making approach to climate change adaptation in the forest sector. The Forestry Chronicle 81(1): 97-103.

Pearson, T. R. H., S. Brown, and K. Andrasko. 2008. Comparison of registry methodologies for reporting carbon benefits for afforestation projects in the United States. Environmental Science & Policy. Volume 11, Issue 6, Pages 490-504. doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2008.06.004.

Sampson, R. N. 2004. Experience with Fire and Fire Management in U.S. Forests and the Potential to Increase Carbon Stocks on Forest Land by Changing Practices. Presented at the EPRI Workshop "Setting Research Priorities for Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration," Washington, DC, October 19, 2004.

Shugart, H., R. Sedjo and B. Sohngen. 2003. Forests and global climate change: Potential impacts on U.S. forest resources. Pew Center on Global Climate Change

Skog, K. E., and G. A. Nicholson, 2000. Carbon Sequestration in Wood and Paper Products USDA Forest Service Gen. Tech. Report RMRS-GTR-59. Chapter 5 pages 79-88.

Spittlehouse, D. and R. Stewart. 2003. Adaptation to climate change in forest management. BC Journal of Ecosystems and Management 4(1):1-11.

Stavins, R. and K. Richards. 2005. The cost of US Forest-based Sequestration. PEW Center for Climate Change.

van Mantgem, P.J., N.L. Stephenson, J.C. Byrne, L.D. Daniels, J.F. Franklin, P.Z. Fulé, M.E. Harmon, A.J. Larson, J. M. Smith, A.H. Taylor, T.T. Veblen. 2009. Widespread Increase of Tree Mortality Rates in the Western United States. Science. Vol 323, pp 521-524.

Westerling, A.L., H. G. Hidalgo,D. R. Cayan, T. W. Swetnam. 2006. Warming and Earlier Spring Increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity. Science. Vol. 313. no. 5789, pp. 940 – 943.

Westfall, R.D. and C.I. Millar. 2004. Genetic consequences of forest population dynamics Influenced by historic climatic variability in the Western USA. Forest Ecology and Management. 197: 157-168.



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